Experiment 20250528-BROD

Experiment design

Date: 2025-05-27

Designer: Hiro KATAOKA (University of Tsukuba)

Hypotheses: Echo chambers are observed if beliefs evolve independently of opinions

100 agents; 1 runs; 3000 games

Variables

fixed variables: EPSILON WORKFLOW TOPIC ATOM PACTIVE PREWRITE NBITERATIONS NBAGENTS NBRUNS ALPHA MU REWRITE VALUE PREHOC OPDISTWEIGHT ACCEPTANCE_DESCISION ORDER

controled variables: DELTAS SEEDS

dependent variables: eb

Values

DELTAS: ['1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6', '7']
SEEDS: ['544371', '315590', '903997', '779659', '556198', '160590', '103848', '94821', '501765', '722393', '908149', '490361', '170743', '808653', '204557', '720126', '24083', '756485', '970547', '909432']

Measures

Before verifying each hypotheses, we define the measures needed to check them. Let $A$ be the set of agents. Let $\mathcal S^t$ be the set of strongly connected components of the network of agents at time $t$. Let $T$ be the number of iterations (3000).

eb (Beliefs echo chamber)

This measure counts the ratio of communities (i.e., strongly connected components) such that:

  • they are segregated, i.e., $L^t(C)\leq 0.5$;
  • beliefs are homogeneous, i.e., $M_B^t(C)=0$ (or equivalently, $\forall a,a'\in C$, $B_a^t\equiv B_{a'}^t$);
  • opinions have been reinforced, i.e., $D_B^t(C)$

to all of the communities, where

$$ L^t(C)=\frac{|\{(a,a')\in N^t;a\in C\land a'\notin C\}|}{|\{(a,a')\in N^t;a\in C\}|}, $$

$$ M_B^t(C) = \max_{a,a'\in C}d_B(B_a^t,B_{a'}^t) $$

and

$$ D_B^t(C)=\forall s\in [t_C,T),M_B^s(C)\geq M_B^{s+1}(C). $$

Here, $d_B$ is the Hamming distance over the models of two beliefs:

$$ d_B(B,B')=|\mathcal M(B)\setminus\mathcal M(B')|+|\mathcal M(B')\setminus\mathcal M(B)|. $$

More formally, $eb$ is defined as:

$$ eb^t=|\{C\in\mathcal S^t;L^t(C)\leq 0.5\land M_B^t(C)=0\land D_B^t(C)\}| $$

In complement, we compute the proportion of agents involved in echo chambers.

Experiment

Date: 2025-05-27

Performer: Hiro KATAOKA (University of Tsukuba)

The whole experiment, from scratch, can be executed through:

In principle, this could be generated from command line through:

# only once, not checked in
$ bash utils/clone.sh 

# depends on ${HASH}, if it does not change, no need to recompile
# to compile a further version use 'last' as argument
$ bash utils/compile.sh

# Perform experiments
$ bash script.sh

# The analysis is done through jupyter
$ jupyter notebook &
# Do not forget to trust the notebook

# Before commiting the notebook
$ nb-clean -e notebook.ipynb

# suppresses results and experiments
$ bash utils/cleanup.sh

# bash utils/anonymize.sh

Parameter file: params.sh

Executed command (script.sh):

#!/bin/bash

. params.sh

set -u
mkdir -p ${RESDIR}

MAX_PROCESS=5
current_process=0

# run

date > ${RESDIR}/log.txt

for delta in ${DELTAS}
do
for seed in ${SEEDS}
do
EXP=${delta}-${seed}
mkdir -p ${RESDIR}/${EXP}

echo ${EXP}
./${SIMDIR}/soba --seed ${seed} --dir "${RESDIR}/${EXP}" --nbAgent ${NBAGENTS} \
    --tick ${NBITERATIONS} --atoms ${ATOM} --update ${WORKFLOW} \
    --prehoc "${PREHOC}" \
    --mu "${MU}" --alpha "${ALPHA}" --rewrite ${REWRITE} \
    --pUnfollow "${PREWRITE}" --pActive "${PACTIVE}" --epsilon "${EPSILON}"  \
    --delta ${delta} \
    --values """`cat ${TEMPLATEDIR}/val-${VALUES}.json`""" \
    --topics "${TOPIC}" --agentOrder "${ORDER}" &
current_process=$((current_process + 1))

if [[ $current_process = $MAX_PROCESS ]]; then
wait
current_process=0
fi

done
done


date >> ${RESDIR}/log.txt

# analyse

Hardware: AMD EPYC 7302P (16) @ 3.000GHz, Memory 128GB

OS: Ubuntu 22.04.5 LTS x86_64

Nim version: 2.2.0

Simulator version: ca6b226c686026a0d615dd968fae0b25a0017a5d

Duration and Output

  • Duration: 37 minutes
  • Output: 1.3 GB

Raw Results

Raw results are available at Zenodo:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.15526225

Analysis

Stabilization check

Before computing the measures, we test whether agents' beliefs and the network they form are stable. We regard them as stable iff they do not change during the last 20 interactions: $\forall t\in [T-20,T],\forall a\in A,B_a^t\equiv B_a^T$ for beliefs and $\forall t\in [T-20,T],\mathcal S^t=\mathcal S^T$ for the network. This means that agents do not change their beliefs and neighbors during the last 10 times (in expectation) they are active.

Beliefs

Out[12]:
since
count 140.000000
mean 21.192857
std 6.918744
min 10.000000
25% 16.750000
50% 19.000000
75% 24.000000
max 51.000000

The table above shows the distribution of the minimal time $T'$ such that $\forall t\in [T',T],\forall a\in A,B_a^t\equiv B_a^T$. It shows that for all experiments $T'<T-20$. Thus, beliefs are stable.

Networks

Out[13]:
since
count 140.000000
mean 32.571429
std 10.300620
min 8.000000
25% 25.750000
50% 33.000000
75% 38.000000
max 55.000000

The table above shows the distribution of the minimal time $T'$ such that $\forall t\in [T',T],\forall a\in A,\mathcal S^t=\mathcal S^T$. It shows that for all experiments $T'<T-20$. Thus, the network is stable.

Computing the measures

Since everything is stable, now we compute the measures.

Out[15]:
delta seed eb agents_eb components singletons
1-544371 1 544371 8 70 16 4
1-315590 1 315590 7 73 16 7
1-903997 1 903997 6 69 16 5
1-779659 1 779659 7 59 18 5
1-556198 1 556198 4 49 13 4
1-160590 1 160590 7 74 18 4
1-103848 1 103848 6 65 12 1
1-94821 1 94821 5 65 9 1
1-501765 1 501765 9 79 15 2
1-722393 1 722393 7 67 11 1
1-908149 1 908149 6 69 15 4
1-490361 1 490361 8 74 15 4
1-170743 1 170743 9 73 13 0
1-808653 1 808653 7 67 11 3
1-204557 1 204557 6 66 13 3
1-720126 1 720126 5 70 9 1
1-24083 1 24083 4 53 10 3
1-756485 1 756485 7 71 15 4
1-970547 1 970547 6 67 10 1
1-909432 1 909432 7 76 12 3
2-544371 2 544371 7 92 11 2
2-315590 2 315590 6 92 14 8
2-903997 2 903997 7 96 10 2
2-779659 2 779659 8 96 12 4
2-556198 2 556198 5 95 9 3
2-160590 2 160590 3 82 13 8
2-103848 2 103848 7 89 16 7
2-94821 2 94821 3 92 9 4
2-501765 2 501765 7 96 10 2
2-722393 2 722393 6 93 13 7
2-908149 2 908149 6 87 18 11
2-490361 2 490361 6 92 12 5
2-170743 2 170743 5 91 10 3
2-808653 2 808653 5 89 11 5
2-204557 2 204557 5 91 13 7
2-720126 2 720126 6 85 13 5
2-24083 2 24083 5 89 11 5
2-756485 2 756485 6 91 14 7
2-970547 2 970547 9 97 12 3
2-909432 2 909432 7 93 13 5
3-544371 3 544371 4 91 11 5
3-315590 3 315590 4 92 11 6
3-903997 3 903997 5 95 8 2
3-779659 3 779659 3 94 9 6
3-556198 3 556198 4 98 6 2
3-160590 3 160590 4 92 9 4
3-103848 3 103848 3 88 13 9
3-94821 3 94821 3 97 6 3
3-501765 3 501765 5 97 8 3
3-722393 3 722393 6 95 10 3
3-908149 3 908149 6 90 14 7
3-490361 3 490361 3 92 11 8
3-170743 3 170743 3 95 8 5
3-808653 3 808653 4 87 11 6
3-204557 3 204557 5 89 16 11
3-720126 3 720126 5 93 12 7
3-24083 3 24083 4 93 11 7
3-756485 3 756485 4 88 11 5
3-970547 3 970547 5 96 9 4
3-909432 3 909432 3 82 15 10
4-544371 4 544371 6 91 10 3
4-315590 4 315590 3 97 6 3
4-903997 4 903997 4 99 5 1
4-779659 4 779659 3 94 9 6
4-556198 4 556198 5 96 9 4
4-160590 4 160590 4 91 13 9
4-103848 4 103848 1 100 1 0
4-94821 4 94821 3 95 6 2
4-501765 4 501765 5 97 8 3
4-722393 4 722393 3 94 9 6
4-908149 4 908149 4 91 11 6
4-490361 4 490361 4 94 10 6
4-170743 4 170743 3 92 11 8
4-808653 4 808653 4 94 9 4
4-204557 4 204557 4 97 7 3
4-720126 4 720126 3 90 13 10
4-24083 4 24083 3 93 10 7
4-756485 4 756485 5 97 8 3
4-970547 4 970547 4 92 12 8
4-909432 4 909432 4 93 11 7
5-544371 5 544371 4 95 8 3
5-315590 5 315590 3 93 6 2
5-903997 5 903997 5 95 10 5
5-779659 5 779659 2 93 7 4
5-556198 5 556198 4 93 11 7
5-160590 5 160590 5 96 8 2
5-103848 5 103848 2 98 4 2
5-94821 5 94821 2 93 9 7
5-501765 5 501765 2 97 5 3
5-722393 5 722393 2 93 9 7
5-908149 5 908149 4 99 5 1
5-490361 5 490361 2 95 7 5
5-170743 5 170743 4 94 10 6
5-808653 5 808653 3 94 9 6
5-204557 5 204557 5 99 6 1
5-720126 5 720126 2 82 18 14
5-24083 5 24083 4 97 7 3
5-756485 5 756485 5 93 7 1
5-970547 5 970547 4 96 8 4
5-909432 5 909432 3 93 10 7
6-544371 6 544371 4 95 9 5
6-315590 6 315590 4 92 12 8
6-903997 6 903997 4 97 7 3
6-779659 6 779659 2 91 10 7
6-556198 6 556198 4 97 7 3
6-160590 6 160590 5 93 12 7
6-103848 6 103848 2 98 4 2
6-94821 6 94821 1 97 4 3
6-501765 6 501765 2 97 5 3
6-722393 6 722393 2 90 12 10
6-908149 6 908149 4 95 8 3
6-490361 6 490361 3 97 6 3
6-170743 6 170743 3 89 11 7
6-808653 6 808653 2 95 6 3
6-204557 6 204557 4 96 8 4
6-720126 6 720126 3 92 11 8
6-24083 6 24083 3 100 3 0
6-756485 6 756485 6 92 12 5
6-970547 6 970547 4 97 7 3
6-909432 6 909432 3 95 6 2
7-544371 7 544371 4 94 9 4
7-315590 7 315590 5 92 13 8
7-903997 7 903997 4 99 5 1
7-779659 7 779659 2 95 7 5
7-556198 7 556198 3 97 6 3
7-160590 7 160590 3 93 10 7
7-103848 7 103848 2 98 4 2
7-94821 7 94821 2 93 9 7
7-501765 7 501765 2 93 8 5
7-722393 7 722393 2 93 9 7
7-908149 7 908149 5 96 9 4
7-490361 7 490361 3 94 8 4
7-170743 7 170743 4 95 9 5
7-808653 7 808653 2 95 6 3
7-204557 7 204557 4 97 7 3
7-720126 7 720126 3 96 7 4
7-24083 7 24083 3 94 9 6
7-756485 7 756485 6 95 11 5
7-970547 7 970547 5 96 9 4
7-909432 7 909432 4 96 8 4

The table below shows some statistics of $eb^T$, the number of agents in beliefs echo chambers (agents_eb), $|\mathcal S^T|$, and the number of singletons (i.e., $|\{C\in\mathcal S^t;|C|=1\}|$).

Out[16]:
eb agents_eb components singletons
count 140.000000 140.000000 140.000000 140.000000
mean 4.342857 89.992857 9.892857 4.607143
std 1.737324 10.017608 3.312710 2.529528
min 1.000000 49.000000 1.000000 0.000000
25% 3.000000 90.000000 8.000000 3.000000
50% 4.000000 93.000000 10.000000 4.000000
75% 5.000000 96.000000 12.000000 7.000000
max 9.000000 100.000000 18.000000 14.000000

From this table, in all of the experiments, $eb^T>0$.

Some plots

$eb^T=1$

The table below shows the list of experiments which end with $eb^T=1$.

Out[17]:
delta seed eb agents_eb components singletons
4-103848 4 103848 1 100 1 0
6-94821 6 94821 1 97 4 3

The experiment 4-103848 is the only one experiment such that $|\mathcal S^T|=1$.

The final networks of these experiments listed above colored with agents' beliefs are as follows.

Experiment 4-103848

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-94821

No description has been provided for this image

All agents share the same beliefs.

$eb^T=2$

Next, we show the list of experiments with $eb^T=2$:

Out[19]:
delta seed eb agents_eb components singletons
5-779659 5 779659 2 93 7 4
5-103848 5 103848 2 98 4 2
5-94821 5 94821 2 93 9 7
5-501765 5 501765 2 97 5 3
5-722393 5 722393 2 93 9 7
5-490361 5 490361 2 95 7 5
5-720126 5 720126 2 82 18 14
6-779659 6 779659 2 91 10 7
6-103848 6 103848 2 98 4 2
6-501765 6 501765 2 97 5 3
6-722393 6 722393 2 90 12 10
6-808653 6 808653 2 95 6 3
7-779659 7 779659 2 95 7 5
7-103848 7 103848 2 98 4 2
7-94821 7 94821 2 93 9 7
7-501765 7 501765 2 93 8 5
7-722393 7 722393 2 93 9 7
7-808653 7 808653 2 95 6 3

Experiment 5-779659

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-103848

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-94821

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-501765

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-722393

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-490361

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 5-720126

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-779659

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-103848

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-501765

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-722393

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 6-808653

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-779659

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-103848

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-94821

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-501765

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-722393

No description has been provided for this image

Experiment 7-808653

No description has been provided for this image

Different beliefs are shared in different echo chambers.

Two-step evolution of network?

$t=0$
No description has been provided for this image
$t=10$
No description has been provided for this image
$t=20$
No description has been provided for this image
$t=30$
No description has been provided for this image
$t=40$
No description has been provided for this image

The network at $t=T$ is the same as it at $t=30$. From the evolutions, we could not see the two-step evolutions (i.e., split into some disconnected components and then segregation within each weakly connected components). However, when each beliefs echo chambers appear differs:

  • green and purple appear at $t=20$;
  • blue and brown appear at $t=30$.

The correspondence between colors and beliefs is as follows:

01000000: #4c7bd6
01101111: #7c26d7
00001000: #95100b
10011010: #a573ef
00000010: #b8a2ee
00000100: #147c47
10100111: #a5e2a6
00000001: #ae5ce1
00010000: #942dec
10111101: #c7636b

Plots for the paper

Time evolution

$t=0$
$t=20$
$t=30$
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image

Final network colored with respect to beliefs

In the network below, beliefs echo chambers are surrounded by solid lines; other components are surrounded by dashed lines.

No description has been provided for this image

Conclusion

The hypothesis is supported: we can always observe beliefs echo chambers.

This file can be retrieved from URL https://sake.re/20250528-BROD